Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.914865 15.885568 17.996846 20.422429 23.127403 26.046398 29.429814
2025-10-12 11.014376 13.705340 16.802200 20.611080 25.149551 30.363282 36.783742
2025-10-19 9.399216 12.369406 15.948853 20.545501 26.253322 33.066759 41.769893
2025-10-26 8.067240 11.178438 15.089096 20.310615 27.037294 35.343061 46.296648
2025-11-02 7.153507 10.367781 14.557901 20.342224 28.029640 37.794550 51.018726
2025-11-09 6.453428 9.748065 14.188487 20.506336 29.140838 40.388978 55.983123
2025-11-16 5.791852 9.099700 13.700627 20.434787 29.880419 42.474747 60.314079
2025-11-23 5.194619 8.475942 13.179541 20.251231 30.415575 44.265739 64.278635
2025-11-30 4.770744 8.061859 12.912248 20.385732 31.368335 46.629309 69.078008
2025-12-07 4.509065 7.866857 12.941614 20.935416 32.917821 49.860368 75.179327
2025-12-14 4.078590 7.362491 12.459999 20.678874 33.257221 51.367814 78.879088
2025-12-21 3.564154 6.671022 11.631839 19.828142 32.646318 51.452025 80.505246
2025-12-28 3.402090 6.561349 11.724479 20.427204 34.278821 54.911452 87.222690
2026-01-04 3.211781 6.385413 11.695200 20.826337 35.617030 57.982872 93.481506
2026-01-11 2.940442 6.038223 11.351642 20.683963 36.080750 59.731398 97.795473
2026-01-18 2.684953 5.694572 10.985885 20.474988 36.415061 61.278195 101.838778
2026-01-25 2.492017 5.448760 10.768962 20.496921 37.113416 63.400452 106.820354
2026-02-01 2.338732 5.264171 10.645030 20.665726 38.052533 65.923622 112.495680
2026-02-08 2.164082 5.020152 10.394194 20.592391 38.573031 67.786061 117.176922
2026-02-15 1.990259 4.760398 10.093811 20.408072 38.886823 69.313184 121.357459
2026-02-22 1.871929 4.604299 9.975969 20.543307 39.750112 71.756316 127.074623
2026-03-01 1.812063 4.567346 10.083421 21.096741 41.364402 75.487904 134.993075
2026-03-08 1.664495 4.324020 9.768765 20.838457 41.520508 76.779441 138.930451